Just after NIO announced the cancellation of the second quarter earnings conference call, an analyst made a comment that “This is very rare, quite serious”.
Indeed, even Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla did not miss the phone conference after the financial report was released. In the first quarter of 2018, Musk just couldn’t stand the analyst’s “boring” problem and chose to leave early. Tesla’s share price fell 5.3% after that.
With no exception, stock prices began to plunge like jumpers. Before opening, the stock price fell by more than 20%, closing at $2.17, a decline of 20.22%, the lowest record in a year. On the September 24, the total market value of NIO was only $2.9 billion. Compared with the $11.9 billion at the peak of the listing period, NIO’s market value has evaporated by nearly $9 billion.
The “Black Swan” event, which means the cancellation of the earnings conference call even concealed the fact that NIO’s total revenue of 1.508 billion yuan in the second quarter, which was higher than the market’s expected performance of 1.309 billion yuan. Due to stock price pressure, NIO announced the resumption of the conference call on the 25th.
Of course, the decline in share prices is also directly related to NIO’s continued losses. In the second quarter, NIO Automobile recorded the cost of battery recall of about 340 million yuan in the third quarter, resulting in a loss of 3.193 billion yuan, which was higher than the market expectation of 2.944 billion yuan (on June 27, NIO recalled 4803 ES8 vehicles due to safety incidents).
Whether from the market expectations or their own performance, the second quarter has entered a dark time for NIO. NIO will struggle for the coming period, counting on its efficiency and survival will.
NIO’s performance in the second quarter was sluggish due to various reasons.
First of all, NIO’s main revenue is still dependent on automobile sales, and the second quarter is just the initial delivery of the second five-seat SUV ES6.
ES6 is more cost-effective than ES8, but in the second quarter (as of June 30), sales data of ES6 have not been fully released, plus the replacement of batteries recalled by Uygur ES8, which sacrificed part of ES6 delivery, but also affected the sales of ES8 inventory vehicles.
From the earnings data, we can also see that the automobile sales in this quarter were 1.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.8% compared with the previous quarter. The total revenue was 1.5 billion yuan, with a decrease of 7.5%, compared with the previous quarter.
According to the sales figures, the sales volume of ES6 in August has reached 1808, and the total sales volume in August is 1990, which is the best performance since this year. In addition to the automobile sales peak season of September and October, NIO’s future sales data may go well.
Secondly, the branding of new-energy car has not been established yet, nor has it formed a mature product matrix. Enterprises need to launch marketing activities to stimulate the demand for car purchases. For example, NIO launched a three-year interest-free campaign, and even tried the five-year interest-free service provided for employee buyers in Shanghai. Good sales results in August were also related to this time-limited promotion.
Data also reveals that the number of orders for NIO ES6 has doubled in the first three weeks of September, compared with July, approaching 1,000 units. NIO also expects to deliver 4,200 to 4,400 ES8 and ES6 in the third quarter of 2019, an increase of 18.2% to 23.8% compared with the second quarter, which is a big boost after the sharp decline in new energy vehicle subsidies in June.
According to the financial report, with NIO’s continuous investment in the second generation of automobile production platform, its marketing, sales and management costs have also increased by 38% compared with the same period last year, even exceeding the cost of automobile research and development.
The most imaginative and promising advantage of NIO now is said to be NIO Power, which is an important part of NIO’s electric travel ecology.
According to data released by National Energy Administration, by June 2019, the cumulative number of charging infrastructures in China was 1 million units, an increase of 69.3% over the previous year, and the market will reach 550 billion yuan by 2030. There is also good news on policy: subsidies for car buyers will gradually shift to subsidies for companies that build power/hydrogen infrastructure.
NIO Power has formed a charging network including home charging piles, power stations, fast charging piles, mobile charging vehicles and third-party charging facilities. More than 100 power stations and more than 500 charging vehicles have been deployed. NIO is also expanding its business boundaries. For example, it tried to provide ES8 rental services for one month, and tried to packaged the services of NIO Power and NIO House.
From the perspective of the long-term trend of the travel market, perhaps every attempt at present may be an opportunity for NIO’s future. But the premise, of course, is for NIO to manage to survive.